HARRISONBURG – Predicting who will win Colonial Athletic Association football games this year is proving nearly as difficult as winning a title in the ultra-competitive league. This week’s schedule features two toss-up matchups – JMU at Old Dominion and Massachusetts at Richmond – and a third that I could see going either way in Delaware at Towson.
But you’re also seeing some separation develop in the standings. Maine and Towson can take huge steps toward winning a league title by taking care of business Saturday. The Black Bears host the struggling Villanova Wildcats and Towson plays at disappointing Delaware.
James Madison, New Hampshire and Old Dominion could make headway toward locking up a I-AA playoff bid with wins Saturday. The problem for JMU and ODU is, they face each other.
As for me, I’m in a Richmond-esque slide, desperately searching for a Duke-like week on my schedule to right the ship. I posted a losing record (2-3) last week for the first time this year by reaching for upsets with Villanova and William & Mary. I finally jumped off the Rhode Island bandwagon and what do the Rams do? Win a game.
That showing dropped my overall record on the year to 40-17. Here are this week’s picks…
Rhode Island at New Hampshire: The Rams finally put things together in their 38-34 win over Delaware last week. Can they keep it going this weekend against the Wildcats? The Rams have struggled giving up points and stopping opposing passing attacks.
UNH. They throw it and they score a ton.
New Hampshire won an emotional rivalry game at Gillette Stadium last week against Massachusetts, the final meeting between the two schools as conference mates. (UMass is moving up to Division I-A next year.)
PICK: New Hampshire 34, Rhode Island 17
Massachusetts at Richmond: Richmond squandered a 16-0 halftime lead and lost to Maine 23-22 last weekend, pushing its slide to four games. After a 3-0 start that included an upset of I-A Duke, the Spiders have fallen on tough times.
That won’t change Saturday, even playing at home in front of yet another sell out crowd. Richmond won’t be able to run the ball on UMass, forcing the Spiders into the kind of one-dimensional offensive game plan that has made quarterback Aaron Corp the second-most sacked QB in the CAA.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Herandez – the league’s leading rusher – should have a field day against UR’s defense.
PICK: UMass 27, Richmond 17
Maine at Villanova: I still have a hard time imagining Villanova going winless in the league this year, even with how young and beat up they are. Hosting a Maine team that has been one of the biggest surprises of the year, but a squad that’s had to pull some rabbit-out-of-the-hat type wins to stay atop the league standings, could this be the Wildcats’ weekend?
No.
Maine will be able to move the ball against Villanova, with or without Pushaun Brown. Villanova won’t be able to do the same.
PICK: Maine 28, Villanova 10
Delaware at Towson: If you go by preseason expectations, Delaware should win this game by about four scores.
But things haven’t played out the way most expected for either team. Delaware, considered a league title contender, has lost back-to-back games to Massachusetts and Rhode Island, while Towson is stunningly tied atop the league standings with Maine.
The game features two of the league’s most productive tailbacks in Delaware’s Andrew Pierce and Towson’s Terrance West. But Tigers quarterback Grant Enders seems to be making the plays that make the difference.
In the end, Enders and Towson’s redzone defense help make this geographically-close game finally a rivalry.
PICK: Towson 23, Delaware 22
James Madison at Old Dominion: Seems all season long, people west of Norfolk have been waiting for the Monarchs’ mirage to fade away. It hasn’t happened. ODU is a legitimate contender in its first year playing in the CAA.
But this will be the toughest test yet for the Monarchs, who have wins over Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Villanova on their CAA resume, to go with losses to Delaware and Towson.
The Dukes are coming off a bye week. Their offensive line and running backs should be rested and ready to go. JMU should run the ball effectively. As long as its defense can keep ODU’s wide receivers in front of it and not give up long touchdowns, the Dukes should take a big step toward returning to the I-AA playoffs for the first time since 2008.
PICK: JMU 24, ODU 20
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