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HARRISONBURG -- It's crunch time in the Colonial Athletic Association as three teams - Maine, New Hampshire and Towson - are tied for first. Old Dominion will join those three in the Division I-AA playoffs. Only JMU is left still vying for an at-large bid.
Delaware (5-4) - with its D-II win over West Chester - can't get to seven D-I wins. UMass (5-4) is not eligible for the postseason as it prepares to move to I-A next year.
But teams like UMass, Rhode Island and William & Mary do have the chain to be spoilers.
I went 2-3 last week, going out like a lamb. My overall record on the year fell to 45-22. But there's still time to roar. Just like JMU, I'm in need of two strong showings to end the regular season.
Richmond at Delaware: The Blue Hens haven't been putting much pressure on opposing quarterbacks this year, ranking last in the league in sacks. But Delaware is still stout against the pass, dropping extra bodies into coverage and allowing the fewest passing touchdowns (8) in the CAA.
Delaware tailback Andrew Pierce should feast on Richmond's unimpressive defense. UR interim coach Wayne Lineburg, who started 3-0 with an upset over Duke, has not yet won a CAA game, making it unlikely he'll get the permanent gig.
PICK: Delaware 27, Richmond 13
Old Dominion at William & Mary: Will the Monarchs' run defense be able to slow down the CAA's leading rusher, Jonathan Grimes? ODU did a good job against other top backs, including Delaware's Andrew Pierce and UMass' Jonathan Hernandez.
A year ago, these two teams met in a non-conference game that was as testy and choppy as any league game has ever been.
PICK: Old Dominion 20, William & Mary 17
Massachusetts at Maine: These two are statistically similar. Both are coming off home losses. A year ago, UMass took out Maine despite a big game from Pushaun Brown. That win came thanks in large part to Black Bear turnovers. But UM and quarterback Warren Smith have been much better with ball security this year.
Brown is hurting and may not be full speed. UMass running back Jonathan Hernandez is having - as expected - a big year. Maine's run defense has been suspect.
Maine needs this game more, since UMass isn't eligible for a CAA title or playoff bid this year (It's transitioning to Division I-A). But the Minutemen were embarrassed last week giving Villanova its first league win.
UMass is playing for pride the next two weeks, but with a roster full of seniors, that should be enough to make them dangerous.
PICK: UMass 24, Maine 21
New Hampshire at Towson: Two of the top offenses go head-to-head in a game that could go a long way to determining the CAA champion. Both squad are 5-1 and tied with Maine atop the league standings.
A year ago, UNH blew Towson out in the final game of the regular season. But that was a very different Tigers team. This version, led by quarterback Grant Enders and running back Terrance West, who has scored an eye-popping 21 rushing touchdowns, by far the most in the league.
The Wildcats have struggled in run defense this year, but have been winning close games to stay near the top of the conference.
PICK: Towson 24, New Hampshire 21
Rhode Island at James Madison: The Dukes, desperately needing wins in its final two games to have a shot at the Division I-AA playoffs, get junior quarterback Justin Thorpe back from a five-game suspension.
Thorpe will start against Rhode Island, in part, because his replacement, Jace Edwards, has ankle and shoulder injuries. When Thorpe was suspended, the Dukes had a ton of momentum, winning three straight including back-to-back road wins at teams that were ranked at the time.
JMU will need Thorpe - who has been practicing by running the scout team offense - to pick up where he left off.
And the Dukes will need to contain Rhode Island's kick returner and quarterbacks Bob Bentsen and Steve Propst. Bentsen could test JMU's suspect pass defense.
The Rams have won two of their last three games but don't have a road victory yet this season.
PICK: James Madison 27, Rhode Island 17
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