A Look At The I-AA Playoff Picture

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HARRISONBURG – A lot will have to go right for James Madison to return to the Division I-AA playoffs this year, snapping a two-year absence.

The biggest is that the Dukes, losers of three of their last four games, will have to beat Rhode Island and Massachusetts to get to 7-4.

Still, JMU may need some help even if it does that. The I-AA tournament takes 20 teams, with 10 being automatic qualifiers by winning their conferences. There are some obvious choices for at larges and then it gets interesting.

Some things that might help the Dukes?

Wins by Northern Iowa over Southern Utah and Illinois State would knock both those teams off the bubble and put Northern Iowa in.

A Lehigh win over Georgetown today would give it the Patriot League title and keep it from grabbing an at-large.

If Elon could upset Furman or Texas State beat Central Arkansas, that would also improve the Dukes chances of making the field.

JMU would have to be the fifth Colonial Athletic Association team into the field. The NCAA has taken that many teams before. Those close to the CAA regard this as a down year for the league, in part, because traditional powers Richmond, Villanova and William & Mary have been lousy.

But nationally, the CAA’s resume still stacks up as the best. It has six teams in the current Top 25. During the year, 10 of its 11 members were in the Top 25 at one point. The league’s teams are 19-2 against other I-AA conferences this season.

And its last place team, Richmond, has a win over I-A Duke.

At 7-4, JMU would put itself in the thick of the conversation. Here’s a look at the current playoff picture.

Who’s in?: First, 10 league champions get automatic bids. That puts the CAA champion into the 20-team field along with (and some of these are projected winners):

Big Sky: Montana State

Big South: Liberty

MEAC: Norfolk State

MVC: North Dakota State

NEC: Albany

OVC: Eastern Kentucky

Patriot: Lehigh

Southern: Georgia Southern

Southland: Sam Houston State

The CAA’s next best three teams are all locks for at-larges, meaning Maine, New Hampshire, Old Dominion and Towson are all in. (13 bids gone, if you’re scoring at home.)

From the Southern, Wofford (14) is in with a win in either of its next two – vs. Georgia Southern and Chattanooga. In the unlikely event it loses both (not impossible), it’s eliminated at 7-4 because of a win over NAIA Virginia Wise.

Appalachian State (15) – with games against weak Elon and Western Carolina teams – figures to be in.

Northern Iowa (16), if it can take care of business against Southern Utah and Illinois State, not only gets in, but also knocks those two teams out.

Montana (17) is in.

Who’s on the bubble?: My math leaves three spots for the following seven teams – Central Arkansas, Furman, Illinois State, Indiana State, James Madison, Southern Utah and Stony Brook.

Here they are broken down.

JMU needs wins in its final two games to get to 7-4. It’s losses would be to three playoff teams (Maine, New Hampshire and Old Dominion) and I-A North Carolina. It’s best win, however, would be at Liberty.

Furman, which ends the year at Florida, needs a win over Elon on Saturday to get in. And even then, it’ll be a bubble team.

Illinois State would put itself likely in the field and push Northern Iowa to the bubble with a win over the Panthers on Saturday.

Central Arkansas, with a win over Texas State, would move to 8-3, though it would have just seven D-I wins. A loss eliminates it.

Southern Utah, from the non-auto bid Great West, would likely put itself in the field with a win over Northern Iowa and then one over Northern Arizona. An upset of Northern Iowa coupled with an earlier win over I-A UNLV, would make Southern Utah’s case fairly strong, even at 7-4.

Stony Brook, with a win over Liberty next Saturday it would win the Big South title and push Liberty to the bubble. With a win over Gardner Webb this weekend and a loss to Liberty, Stony Brook would be on the outside looking in.

Indiana State needs wins over the two bottom teams in the MVC – Missouri State and Southern Illinois – to keep itself in the discussion.