CAA Picks: Week 1

HARRISONBURG – Can you smell that? It’s college football in the air. Forget the calendar. The fall begins Thursday night when games start kicking off. Roll out all the clichés about every team being 0-0 and everybody having a chance at a national title. At the I-A level, that’s total garbage. In I-AA, it’s a little closer to the truth, though a few of the teams in this blog (I’m looking at you, Bryant, Campbell and Towson) shouldn’t be worrying about booking hotel rooms in Frisco in January.

The first few games of the season are always the toughest to predict since, outside of James Madison, I haven’t had a real chance to study any of these teams. There. That’s my disclaimer in case any of these picks turn out to be way off (Now I’m looking at you, Delaware and Maine. Don’t let me down).

Let’s get some momentum for a good year of predictions.

Here’s Week 1’s picks …

New Hampshire at Toledo: The Wildcats have a great record of knocking off non-BCS I-A teams. But the Rockets are a solid squad, picked to win the MAC. A veteran defense should keep UNH close as an emerging offense led by quarterback Kevin Decker and running back Dontra Peters finds its way. New Hampshire should be playoff-bound yet again in 2011 but another I-A upset may be a bit much to ask from this group to open the year.

PICK: Toledo 24, New Hampshire 17

Villanova at Temple: Andy Talley’s team has beaten Temple in two of the last three meetings. But this isn’t the same Wildcats team. Chris Whitney and Matt Szczur are gone and Villanova will start six true freshmen Thursday night against the Owls and a redshirt freshman (Dustin Thomas) at quarterback. All that adds up to Temple owning Philadelphia for a year.

PICK: Temple 23, Villanova 10

UMass at Holy Cross: You could say UMass doesn’t have much to play for this year, since the Minutemen aren’t eligible for the CAA title or a postseason bid as they transition to Division I-A. On the flip side, one could argue going 11-0 is the only goal UMass can shoot for. Holy Cross is likely to finish in the middle of the pack in the Patriot League this year and shouldn’t be a match for the Minutemen, with their strong offensive line and veteran defense.

PICK: UMass 27, Holy Cross 10

Delaware at Navy: The Blue Hens will have a new quarterback – and not a I-A transfer for a change – under center, likely Trevor Sasek. Navy too is breaking in a new quarterback as well. Ricky Dobbs was a senior last year. Delaware has a hulking – at any level – offensive line and a stable of talented running backs to control the game. I can’t see the first week going by without a CAA team pulling an upset. It’ll either be Delaware or New Hampshire. Let’s give the nod to the Blue Hens.

PICK: Delaware 24, Navy 17

Bryant at Maine: Can quarterback Warren Smith – who beat out Chris Treister for the starting job for the second year in a row – protect the football this year? Veteran coach Jack Cosgrove believes so. A healthy dose of talented running back Pushaun Brown should open things up for Smith against a Bryant team picked fifth in the lightly-regarded NEC.

PICK: Maine 24, Bryant 13

William & Mary at Virginia: It was just two years ago that William & Mary went into Charlottesville and knocked off a U.Va. team with an unsettled quarterback situation. Unlike former Cavaliers coach Al Groh, Mike London named his starter and should have Michael Rocco and mates ready for one of the top teams in Division I-AA. The Tribe’s defensive line and linebackers should be good enough to limit Rocco and the Cavs and W&M tailback Jonathan Grimes should find some success moving the ball against U.Va. But not enough to turn the trick again. This one will be closer than London – the former Richmond coach – would like, but in the end…

PICK: Virginia 24, W&M 21

Campbell at Old Dominion: In its first year in the CAA, ODU has the schedule every other league coach dreams of. Three manageable I-AA games for its non-conference slate – including two at home -- before running the Colonial gauntlet. (Well, ODU doesn’t have a real bye week. It’s off the final week of the regular season. You can’t get everything you want.) Now, it’s up to the Monarchs and quarterback Thomas DeMarco to use those three non-league games to build up some momentum. Week 1, that shouldn’t be a problem.

PICK: ODU 38, Campbell 13

Morgan State at Towson: It won’t be easy sledding this year (again) for Towson. The Tigers best chances for wins come in their first three games, all at home. This one – against instate rival Morgan State – they should be able to handle with relative ease. Morgan was picked to finish sixth in the MEAC. This one could be tough to watch. Glad I’ll be in Chapel Hill.

PICK: Towson 31, Morgan state 10

Richmond at Duke: Like the U.Va.-W&M tilt, this is another rematch of a 2009 upset. The Spiders aren’t as good this year as they were then, under Mike London. And it doesn’t help that their coach, Latrell Scott, had to resign just over a week before the season after picking up his second DWI. Quarterback Aaron Corp will make some big-league throws in this one and Richmond may – MAY – keep it close for a half.

PICK: Duke 37, Richmond 17

JMU at UNC: A year ago, the Dukes were the darlings of I-AA football when they shocked nationally-ranked Virginia Tech. Can JMU turn the trick two years in a row? North Carolina isn’t nearly as formidable a foe as the Hokies were last year and the Dukes should be stronger on defense and vastly improved on offense. At days end, JMU’s defense should be able to limit the Tar Heels’ attack, but UNC’s defense – especially it’s defensive line – could dominate this game. JMU should be on its way to a better record than the past two years and a return to the postseason, but they won’t be pulling another ACC upset.

PICK: North Carolina 23, JMU 13

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