Thursday, September 15, 2011

CAA Picks: Week 3

HARRISONBURG Most Colonial Athletic Association teams are still playing non-conference games this week. Take out the money games against I-A opponents, and the CAA is 9-0 this year against other I-AA leagues. That shouldn’t change much this week, though James Madison has a stiff test playing at Liberty. The game of the week, however, is a CAA title between Rhode Island and UMass.

I was 8-1 last week bringing my mark for the year to 16-3. Nothing like getting off to a fast start. Here are this week’s picks…

Monmouth at Villanova: The Wildcats lost to Towson last week, which means they can officially lose any game. It also means their chances for wins will be few and far between the rest of the way. They do have this game and a beatable Penn team next week. Villanova started the year young and a bevy of injuries on offense – including one to redshirt freshman quarterback Dustin Thomas – has only made things worse. But the Wildcats should circle the wagons this week and get their first win of the year. Will it be their last?

PICK: Villanova 17, Monmouth 10

VMI at Richmond: A week after getting beat 24-7 by William & Mary, VMI faces its second CAA team with a trip to Richmond. The Spiders, who upset Duke in their season-opener, need this win to have that oh-so-valuable 3-0 non-conference mark going into the tough slate of league games. The Spiders are turning more and more to fullback Kendall Gaskins as a ball carrier. The one-two punch of Gaskins on the ground and Aaron Corp through the air has Richmond looking like a contender.

PICK: Richmond 31, VMI 7

Delaware State at Delaware: This is just the third meeting between the in-state rivals and the Hornets, under a new coach, are off to a 2-0 start. That should come to an end Saturday at Delaware, where the Blue Hens should be big favorites. Sophomore tailback Andrew Pierce is rushing for over 120 yards a game this year and has scored three touchdowns, helping mask some question marks at quarterback. Pierce should have a big day at against Delaware State.

Pick: Delaware 37, Delaware State 13

Hampton at Old Dominion: Another local rivalry that likely won’t be close when the two teams get on the field. ODU’s program has quickly flown by Hampton’s and that should be on display Saturday. Senior quarterback Thomas Demarco has Old Dominion at 2-0 and eager to lock down that third win heading into league play. The only potential pitfall for Old Dominion would be if the Monarchs have begun looking ahead to next weekend’s CAA opener against Delaware.

PICK: ODU 31, Hampton 10

Maine at Albany: The Black Bears opened eyes last week playing Pittsburgh tough into the fourth quarter before falling. But Maine really wants a win this week to atone for last year’s 3-0 loss to Albany in a stinker of a season opener. Senior tailback Pushaun Brown should be too much for Albany to handle. And senior quarterback Warren Smith hasn’t thrown an interception in his first two games. That’s the kind of ball security the Black Bears need from that position.

PICK: Maine 17, Albany 3

New Haven at William & Mary: After getting whipped by Virginia in the opener, the Tribe is gearing up for CAA play with some lighter fare. They took out VMI last Saturday and this weekend host New Haven. It should give William & Mary’s struggling offense a chance to get going, especially star tailback Jonathan Grimes, who has just 107 yards in the first two games.

PICK: William & Mary 24, New Haven 3

Rhode Island at Massachusetts: This is the big one in the CAA this week. Yes, UMass can’t win the league title or go to the I-AA playoffs because it’s transitioning to Division I-A and the MAC. But its seniors still want to claim a de facto league crown by running the table. Rhode Island is the league’s up-and-comer, even though it’s downshifting to the limited-scholarship Northeast Conference after next season. This should be a wildly entertaining game featuring two high-powered offenses and two solid defenses. UMass’s defense is a bit better. That combined with the running of tailback Jonathan Hernandez should be the difference in this one.

PICK: UMass 27, Rhode Island 24

JMU at Liberty: Is this the year Liberty gets over the hump against instate rival James Madison? I think so. The Dukes haven’t put a full game together yet this season, struggling on defense and with the running game against North Carolina, while struggling in the passing game last week in a win over Central Connecticut State. If JMU puts it all together, it could handle the Flames. But if the Dukes are still a bit shaky, Liberty is poised to take advantage. Quarterback Mike Brown can make plays with his arms and legs and the Flames’ 3-4 defense is steady. JMU hasn’t proven it can score yet.

PICK: Liberty 17, JMU 16

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