HARRISONBURG – More tough calls this week, so I took an extra night to sleep on some of these picks. As balanced and competitive as the Colonial Athletic Association is this year, teams don’t want and can’t afford a second loss early in the season. Teams like Rhode Island and William & Mary face must-wins to avoid their third defeat.
I went 5-2 last week to bring my season total to 27-7. I was too high on UMass (they didn’t come close to upsetting Boston College) and too down on Villanova (they’re bad, but they beat Penn.)
Here are this week’s picks…
Holy Cross at New Hampshire: The Wildcats’ defense has given up over 40 points in each of the team’s first three games. And while the potent UNH offense – led by quarterback Kevin Decker – has been able to keep pace so far, that trend can’t – and shouldn’t – continue.
Holy Cross is no slouch of an opponent, having lost a close game against UMass in its season opener. This will be the crusaders first road game of 2011 and while Durham, N.H. isn’t exactly Death Valley or the Swamp (or even Harrisonburg or Newark) that should work to UNH’s favor.
Holy Cross senior quarterback Ryan Taggart will test the Wildcats’ defense yet again, but this week, they should have some answers.
PICK: UNH 37, Holy Cross 27
William & Mary at Villanova: The Wildcats scored their first win last weekend beating Penn after getting a pair of interception returns for touchdowns. William & Mary won’t be as careless with the football. The Tribe shored up its quarterbacking situation when Michael Graham played well in the loss to JMU. Bolstered by the return of wide receiver Ryan Moody, Graham and the W&M passing game is rounding into form.
And that means tailback Jonathan Grimes should become more and more an effective weapon as teams have to account for pass defense in addition to stopping the run.
While the Tribe’s offense is coming together, Villanova’s is still painfully young and inexperienced. Playing at home is an advantage, but not big enough one to change the outcome.
PICK: W&M 27, Villanova 17
Delaware at Maine: Old Dominion gave Delaware fits last weekend before the Blue Hens finally put the CAA’s newest team away. New quarterback Tim Donnelly threw for 304 yards and a pair of touchdowns to help make up for a disappointing showing from tailback Andrew Pierce.
Maine went 2-1 in its non-conference slate and an upset over Delaware could get the Black Bears going in the right direction. The offense has developed good balance with Pushaun Brown churning out yards on the ground and quarterback Warren Smith moving the ball through the air without throwing the interceptions that plagued the team last year.
It’s tempting to give the Bears the nod for the upset, but not tempting enough. Delaware escapes Orono, barely.
PICK: Delaware 24, Maine 20
Towson at Maryland: The Tigers have come far under coach Rob Ambrose, but not that far. Ambrose may have some insight into new Maryland coach Randy Edsall’s approach, after working on Edsall’s staff at Connecticut, but that won’t make up for the talent gap.
Towson’s goal should be to play well for a quarter or two, and then escape without any major injuries. Because behind emerging star quarterback Grant Enders, the Tigers could have a shot at a I-AA playoff bid.
PICK: Maryland 34, Towson 13
Rhode Island at Brown: After an 0-2 start – with losses to Syracuse and UMass – the Rams eked out a surprisingly tight 21-17 win over Fordham last week. Now, it’s rivalry-game time against Brown. Rhode Island has a high-powered passing attack that should make it a sleeper pick in the CAA this year. But it needs this game to stay in contention for a playoff bid.
A year ago, Brown dragged Rhode Island into overtime before the Rams prevailed. The season before that, Brown won.
Too early in the year for a must-win? Nope. Rhode Island needs this game, and they’ll get it.
PICK: Rhode Island 31, Brown 20
Massachusetts at Old Dominion: This is a huge game for both teams. ODU has come up short in two valiant efforts against CAA teams so far. Last year, it lost a tough one to William & Mary. Last weekend, it took Delaware into the fourth quarter before falling. While those close-calls are earning the Monarchs kudos, what they really want to earn is some victories. Quarterback Thomas DeMarco has proven he can play in the CAA. Now he must prove he can win.
The Minutemen, meanwhile, will be relying more and more on tailback Jonathan Hernandez. UMass still isn’t getting great play from the quarterback spot and its defense has been extremely disappointing. This game being at ODU is a tough call.
PICK: UMass 24, ODU 21
Richmond at James Madison: For the second straight week, the biggest game in the CAA and one of the biggest in I-AA involved JMU. A week after beating then-No. 6 William & Mary in Williamsburg, the Dukes are hosting a Top 10 matchup against No. 10 Richmond.
Let’s dub this the Turmoil Bowl. Richmond has recovered well after shockingly losing its coach – Latrell Scott – just before the start of the season, after Scott was charged with a DWI. Interim coach Wayne Lineburg not only held things together, he led the Spiders to an upset over I-A Duke and then two more wins before falling last weekend to New Hampshire.
Led by USC transfer quarterback Aaron Corp, wide receiver Tre Gray and emerging tailback Kendall Gaskins, the Spiders offense is formidable.
JMU’s offense is in flux. Starting quarterback Justin Thorpe is suspended for the next five games and his backups are largely untested. That should mean a Dukes’ attack that features a lot of Dae’Quan Scott, both at running back and at Wildcat quarterback. Jace Edwards figures to be the starting quarterback with freshman Andre Coble running some option plays with Scott.
This one may come down to which defense plays better. JMU will have its hands full with Corp and Co., but I expect that unit to finally put things together.
PICK: JMU 24, Richmond 21
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